Market Eyes "Triple Threat" as Stocks Extend Record Run on Trade Deal Optimism

Avery Blake
Jul 29, 2025
U.S. equities continue their record streak fueled by a new trade deal. However, investors face a critical week with major tech earnings, a Fed decision, and the July jobs report all on the horizon.
Market Eyes "Triple Threat" as Stocks Extend Record Run on Trade Deal Optimism

U.S. stock futures climbed higher on July 29, building momentum after the S&P 500 secured its sixth consecutive record close and 15th all-time high of 2024. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite also closed at an unprecedented peak, reflecting sustained bullish sentiment. This rally follows a landmark trade agreement between the European Union and the United States, which alleviated global economic tensions. The pact commits the EU to billions in U.S. investments and caps tariffs for most European imports at 15%. Non-compliant nations face an August 1 deadline to negotiate deals before automatic global tariffs of 15–20% take effect.  

Pre-Market Futures Snapshot

As of 6:10 a.m. ET:  

IndexGain
Dow Futures+0.15%
S&P 500 Futures+0.28%
Nasdaq Futures+0.45%

The Triple Threat: Market's Make-or-Break Week

The S&P 500's 28% surge since mid-April marks its fastest rebound in five decades. Gene Goldman, CIO at Cetera Investment Management, warns this week presents three critical tests that could validate or derail the rally:  

1. Mega-Tech Earnings Under Scrutiny

Eyes are on the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, with Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple reporting this week. Investors seek clarity on whether AI-driven capital expenditure—a core growth driver in 2024—is decelerating. Any signs of weakness could trigger volatility.  

2. Federal Reserve Policy Decision

The Fed's July 31 meeting is expected to hold rates steady, but dissent looms. Russell Investments' strategist Paul Eitelman anticipates opposing votes from Governors Waller and Bowman—the first dual dissent since 1993. Markets now price in a likely rate cut by September.  

3. July Jobs Report

Friday's employment data forecasts:  

  • Nonfarm Payrolls: 102,000 (down from June's 147,000)  
  • Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (up from 4.1%)
    A cooling labor market could bolster rate-cut expectations, but weaker-than-expected numbers may reignite recession fears.

Corporate Developments: Leadership Shifts & Earnings Spotlight

Executive Moves

  • Procter & Gamble: CEO Jon Moeller transitions to Executive Chairman on January 1, 2026. COO Shailesh Jejurikar will succeed him.  
  • Cadence Design Systems: Beat Q2 estimates and raised full-year guidance, signaling robust semiconductor demand.

Earnings Disappointments

CompanyPerformance
NucorMissed Q2 targets; projects weaker Q3 results
WhirlpoolQ2 earnings below forecasts; cuts FY outlook

Crypto Breakthrough: PayPal's Game-Changing Feature

PayPal unveiled "Pay with Crypto," enabling consumers to use Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies for purchases via wallets like Coinbase and MetaMask. Key innovations:  

  • Instant Conversion: Transactions auto-convert to fiat or stablecoins.  
  • Cross-Border Efficiency: Businesses save costs on international crypto payments.
    This move accelerates crypto's integration into mainstream commerce.

Market Outlook: Balancing Euphoria and Risk

While trade deals and AI enthusiasm propel indices higher, this week's trifecta—tech earnings, Fed signals, and jobs data—could recalibrate market trajectories. Historically, rapid rallies like the S&P 500's face consolidation phases. Investors should monitor:  

  • Tech Guidance: Sustainability of AI revenue streams.  
  • Fed Language: Hints about September rate cuts.  
  • Labor Trends: Whether softening employment aligns with a "soft landing" scenario.